According to this article http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/02/160209-meteorite-death-india-probability-odds/ a science professor at Tulane University made a paper to calculate the probability of a person being hit by a meteor on Earth . And also an astronomer made a calculation (not mentioning the procedure) with a similar figure. My question is, since the moon has no atmosphere and more meteors reach the surface, is there any mathematical formula, paper, etc. to calculate how likely a spot in moon's surface it's likely to be hit by a meteor?
There is this source that claims 2800 kg of meteor material lands on the moon everyday. They break down that amount to determine an average area per strike. There have been other studies like this one and this report. I sure can't vouch for the accuracy of this first report but it's from a reputable (NASA) source.