# is there any mathematical formula, paper or anything that shows the probability of a meteor hitting a particular spot of moon's surface?

According to this article http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/02/160209-meteorite-death-india-probability-odds/ a science professor at Tulane University made a paper to calculate the probability of a person being hit by a meteor on Earth . And also an astronomer made a calculation (not mentioning the procedure) with a similar figure. My question is, since the moon has no atmosphere and more meteors reach the surface, is there any mathematical formula, paper, etc. to calculate how likely a spot in moon's surface it's likely to be hit by a meteor?

• – StephenG Jun 24 '17 at 13:11
• so, the answer by 2006 was "we dont know yet"? And the probability of hitting a spot looks like it is calculated by spliting how many meteors actually reach the surface divided by the surfaces area or something like that? I thought there might be a formula counting the amount of asteroids vouyering a region of space, the probability of being attracted or getting in the course of a planet, the probability of reaching the surface because of the atmosphere composition, density, etc or some ecuations or formulas with variables like those, so you could apply it to other planets if u know some data – Pablo Jun 24 '17 at 14:47
• If you following the bread crumbs, you'll see the professor at Tulane didn't do any such calculation, he merely referenced a calculation from "Abbott (2012)". However, he provides no further information about how/what Abbott (2012) is and I can't find a reference to such a paper. Furthermore, I'm willing to bet such calculations are only based loosely on physics and more so on statistics and reports, i.e., they estimate the frequency of occurrence based on how many reports there are of it occurring. – zephyr Jul 21 '17 at 16:24
• You can calculate this just from looking at the craters on the moon. Except for the parts that had lavaflow in the past, the craters should have existed since the formation. You just need to count the number of craters there to get an idea of the probability. – A. C. A. C. Jul 21 '17 at 17:05

## 1 Answer

There is this source that claims 2800 kg of meteor material lands on the moon everyday. They break down that amount to determine an average area per strike. There have been other studies like this one and this report. I sure can't vouch for the accuracy of this first report but it's from a reputable (NASA) source.