In the National Geographic article: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/04/090403-gamma-ray-extinction_2.html it is suggested that a gamma ray burst likely caused a mass extinction in earth's history. How severe is the threat of a gamma ray burst to life on earth? It would be nice to see a chart that considers the threat within the next hundred years as follows (I have no idea what the actual numbers are, hence I am asking):
Severity - Likelihood in 100 years:
- Global extinction - 0.0000001%
- Major impact - 0.001%
- Moderate impact - 0.1%
- Minor impact (e.g. deplete ozone layer by 0.01%) - 10%
- Observable - 100% ("minor" gamma ray bursts are frequently detected)
Follow up questions are:
- Would there be any warning of an impending severe gamma ray burst?
- Could we survive in gamma ray burst shelters? (it would appear being underground may be sufficient according to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_protection#Shielding_design and http://2013.org/showthread.php/188-How-does-one-prepare-sufficiently-for-gamma-radiation-in-a-shelter-etc)
Something else I found to be shocking is that the Bible appears to predict such an event. I would rate the predicted event on the major impact level. I asked about this in the Christian Stack Exchange here: https://hermeneutics.stackexchange.com/questions/9324/interpretations-of-revelation-168-11/9335#9335