This interesting problem is clearly relevant in astronomy as well. Within medical imaging, determining the center of an object also comes into play in several, special application areas.
I posed the question here to become informed as to which formula's are being used within astronomy: How is the uncertainty of the 'COG' being estimated, in the presence of (additive) measurement noise?
In 2002, we derived a general formula for the variance of the estimated center of gravity, in the presence of normally distributed additive noise, associated with each pixel value. The reference is as follows:
H.C. van Assen, M. Egmont-Petersen, J.H.C. Reiber. "Accurate object localization in gray level images using the center of gravity measure: accuracy versus precision", IEEE Transactions on Image Processing, Vol. 11, No. 12, pp. 1379-1384, 2002.
I will first give the general formula, which only assumes that the center of the window surrounding the object is $(0,0)$. The object does not have to be positioned centrally for this formula to hold.
Define the additive measurement noise associated with each pixel as $\epsilon \sim U(0,\sigma^2)$, with $\sigma$ being its standard deviation.
Define a squared (sub)image ${\cal W}$ of dimensions $(d+1) \times (d+1)$ pixels, with coordinates, $x=-\frac{d}{2},\frac{d}{2}+1,\ldots,\frac{d}{2}$, and $y=-\frac{d}{2},\frac{d}{2}+1,\ldots,\frac{d}{2}$. Let ${\bf w}_{x,y}$ be the true pixel intensity of pixel $(x,y)$ in absense of any noise, in ${\cal W}$. Define the signal-plus-noise image $W$ as: $w_{x,y}={\bf w}_{x,y} + \epsilon$. Define the total number of pixels in the (sub)image as $N=(d+1)^2$, which includes the central 0-th row and 0-th column of $W$.
The values of $w_{x,y}$, with ($w_{x,y} \geq 0$), are the ones actually being observed. Close to the center $(x=0,y=0)$ a bright object of interest has been located.
The estimated center of gravity $cog$ of this object is computed as follows:
$$
\widehat{cog}(x,y)=\left(\dfrac{\sum_{x,y} \; x\,w_{x,y}}{\sum_{x,y} \; w_{x,y}},\dfrac{\sum_{x,y} \; y\,w_{x,y}}{\sum_{x,y} \; w_{x,y}}\right)
$$
where $x$ and $y$ are running indices such that each pixel in $W$ enters the calculation of a sum (sigma) exactly one time. $cog$ is the measurement that is influenced by measurement noise.
Using the delta rule two successive times, we derived a general approximate formula for the variance of the cog, given a known noise level.
Define $x2$ as:
$$
x2 = \sum_{x} \; \sum_{y} \; x^2
$$
and similarly $y2$ as:
$$
y2 = \sum_{x} \; \sum_{y} \; y^2
$$
Finally, the average 'weight' (average pixel intensity) is given by:
$$
\hat{\mu}_w = N^{-1} \; \sum_{x} \; \sum_{y} \; w_{x,y}
$$
Let $\widehat{cog}(x)$ denote the estimated center of gravity $x$-coordinate and $\widehat{cog}(y)$ the estimated center of gravity $y$-coordinate.
The MLE derived variance estimates of $\widehat{cog}(x)$ and $\widehat{cog}(y)$ are:
$$
\text{var}(\widehat{cog}(x))=\left(\frac{\sigma^2 \; x2}{\left[N \; \hat{\mu}_w \; \widehat{cog}(x)\right]^2} + \frac{\sigma^2}{N \; (\hat{\mu}_w)^2} \right) \; (\widehat{cog}(x))^2
$$
and
$$
\text{var}(\widehat{cog}(y))=\left(\frac{\sigma^2 \; y2}{\left[N \; \hat{\mu}_w \; \widehat{cog}(y)\right]^2} + \frac{\sigma^2}{N \; (\hat{\mu}_w)^2} \right) \; (\widehat{cog}(y))^2
$$
It turns out that when the true cog is precisely $(0,0)$, then the limit (simplified) formulas for the cog-variance hold:
$$
\lim_{cog(x) \to 0} \; \; \lim_{cog(y) \to 0} \; \text{var}(\widehat{cog}(x)) = \frac{\sigma^2 \; x2}{(N \; \hat{\mu}_w)^2}
$$
and
$$
\lim_{cog(x) \to 0} \; \; \lim_{cog(y) \to 0} \; \text{var}(\widehat{cog}(y)) = \frac{\sigma^2 \; y2}{(N \; \hat{\mu}_w)^2}
$$
as the second (additive) variance term within the outer parentheses then vanishes.
My recent simulations show that above $95\%$ of the actual variance results from out defined variance formula, as presented here. This simulation result also holds when the true cog
deviates more than one coordinate from the central position $(0,0)$.
Simulation graphic showing the accuracy of the variance estimation will be added to this answer, one of the coming days.
Multiplicative noise
Poisson noise occurs in CCD-cameras, its influence can especially be observed in gradient transitions of image intensity from very dark areas to really bright ones. The magnitude of Poisson noise is known to be proportional to signal intensity. In this case, multiplicative noise is present in the observed image:
$$
w_{x,y}={\bf w}_{x,y} \, \, \cdot \alpha \, \cdot \, \epsilon
$$
with $\alpha$ being a proportionality constant and $\epsilon$ the normally distributed noise term (which approximates a Poisson distribution well for moderate $w_{i,j} >0$).
Performing a simple $\ln(\cdot)$ transformation, $lw_{i,j}=\ln(w_{i,j})$ yields a transformed image $lw$ perturbed by additive noise. Subsequently, the cog-variance estimator can be applied to the $lw$-image.