The Washington Post's One hundred meteors in 15 minutes? ‘Short-lived outburst’ of shooting stars forecast for Thursday night. says:
A “short-lived outburst” is forecast for Thursday evening around 11:50 p.m. Eastern.
The prediction of an outburst comes from NASA research scientist Peter Jenniskens and Finnish Fireball Network’s Esko Lyytinen and was published in MeteorNews. The pair specialize in sniffing out meteor outbursts and storms, expertly calculating the orbits of various celestial bodies that give rise to meteor showers. Scientists still haven’t pinned down the object depositing the debris anticipated to trigger this display.
However, outbursts in 1925, 1935, 1985 and 1995 offered enough information for the team to produce a model. It indicates the close passage of a dense pocket of spaceborne debris. That narrow but potent debris stream is likely to manifest in a 15-to-40-minute-long barrage of meteors around 11:50 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, according to the researchers.
What will it look like? Jenniskens and Lyytinen indicate events in 1985 and 1995 produced 700 and 400 meteors per hour and wrote that this event could emit anywhere from around 100 per hour to even more than 1,000 per hour, the latter considered a meteor “storm.”
The outburst is calculated to last a fraction of an hour, so those numbers can be sliced in half. And because the radiant point of the meteors will be comparatively low in the sky, we can trim off a bit more.
The linked Meteor News article LIKELY ALPHA MONOCEROTIDS (AMO#246) OUTBURST ON THE MORNING OF NOVEMBER 22, 2019 gives orbital elements derived by different groups of astronomers that can be used to predict the time of maximum.
But what is it that makes this debris trail so narrow that the shower is predicted to last less than one hour while other showers can sometimes extend for several days?