According to the Wikipedia article on the Leonids, "a close encounter with Jupiter is expected to perturb the comet's path, and many streams, making storms of historic magnitude unlikely for many decades". Does this mean there will not be another incidence of the famous storms which spawned thousands or tens of thousands of meteors per hour within our lifetimes? Or will the 33 year periodicity reestablish itself?


Wikipedia does not cite a source.

NASA used to make predictions, eg.:

2009 LEONID OUTBURST FORECAST A significant shower is expected this year when Earth crosses the 1466-dust and 1533-dust ejecta of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. According to J. Vaubaillon, the narrow (about 1-hr) shower is expected to peak on November 17, 2009, at 21:43 (1466) and 21:50 (1533) UT, perhaps 0.5 to 1.0 hour later

These are extensively studied studied, eg. List of all meteor showers .

The great storms occur at ~33 year intervals. I can't find any prediction that this pattern will be unusually perturbed by Jupiter at this time.


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