# What is the probability of having a solar eclipse on a planet?

If we go by our planets 5/8 of our planets have solar eclipses.

What is the probability of a planet having a solar eclipse based off other simulations?

Is there a more accurate way to calculate the probability of a solar eclipse than taking the averages of our current planets statistics? Related: What is the formula to predict lunar and solar eclipses accurately?

(4/79+7/62+12/27+6/6+0)/5

32.15%

• looks good, thanks! It'll be hard to answer though, requires a model of the statistical distribution of moons about exoplanets. Different but related: How to find Exomoons? and What's still needed before we can observe orbits of exomoons thereby weighing exoplanets?
– uhoh
May 22 at 3:13
• We don't know any exo- moons. Thus there is no data to check May 22 at 5:00
• I don't know. BUT... to get a solar eclipse a planet needs a moon with a size/orbital radius that will basically cover the star. Mercury and Venus don't have moons because they're too close to the sun, a moon couldn't exist in a stable orbit. So it can be figured which exoplanets CAN'T have a solar eclipse.
– Greg
May 22 at 15:51
• Are you assuming that you have a planet that is $d$ AU from a star with radius $r$, with a moon with distance $d_m$ away from the planet and radius $r_m$? May 31 at 2:01
• @fasterthanlight my initial answer would be yes but something may be going over my head. May 31 at 2:03