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If we go by our planets 5/8 of our planets have solar eclipses.

What is the probability of a planet having a solar eclipse based off other simulations?

Is there a more accurate way to calculate the probability of a solar eclipse than taking the averages of our current planets statistics? Related: What is the formula to predict lunar and solar eclipses accurately?

(4/79+7/62+12/27+6/6+0)/5

32.15%
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    $\begingroup$ looks good, thanks! It'll be hard to answer though, requires a model of the statistical distribution of moons about exoplanets. Different but related: How to find Exomoons? and What's still needed before we can observe orbits of exomoons thereby weighing exoplanets? $\endgroup$
    – uhoh
    Commented May 22, 2021 at 3:13
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    $\begingroup$ We don't know any exo- moons. Thus there is no data to check $\endgroup$
    – planetmaker
    Commented May 22, 2021 at 5:00
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    $\begingroup$ I don't know. BUT... to get a solar eclipse a planet needs a moon with a size/orbital radius that will basically cover the star. Mercury and Venus don't have moons because they're too close to the sun, a moon couldn't exist in a stable orbit. So it can be figured which exoplanets CAN'T have a solar eclipse. $\endgroup$
    – Greg
    Commented May 22, 2021 at 15:51
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    $\begingroup$ Are you assuming that you have a planet that is $d$ AU from a star with radius $r$, with a moon with distance $d_m$ away from the planet and radius $r_m$? $\endgroup$
    – WarpPrime
    Commented May 31, 2021 at 2:01
  • $\begingroup$ @fasterthanlight my initial answer would be yes but something may be going over my head. $\endgroup$
    – William
    Commented May 31, 2021 at 2:03

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