Questions tagged [impact-probability]

Questions about the chances of collisions between two objects or groups of objects, based on factors such as velocity, mass and number density.

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15 votes
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Safest Place on Earth from Falling Meteorites

Where on Earth is statistically safer if an asteroid was to break up in the Roche limit and rain meteorites effectively resetting the Earth? I would imagine that a ring of falling meteors would form ...
Justintimeforfun's user avatar
-4 votes
2 answers

What is the chance that the Sun will not rise tomorrow?

What is the most likely natural astrophysical mechanism for the "Sun not rising tomorrow", consistent with our scientific knowledge today? Background The "sunrise problem - What is the ...
David Bailey's user avatar
5 votes
1 answer

If two stars collide, what is the probability that they merge to form a single star?

After looking at What are the odds that the Sun hits another star? and answering it (crudely), now I'd like to ask the following: What is the probability that if two stars collide, their cores merge ...
WarpPrime's user avatar
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4 votes
1 answer

Is there any known asteroid or comet whose path goes through the Earth?

Is there any known celestial body of at least 500 ft (150 m) diameter whose Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) is within the Earth, meaning it's sure that it can impact the Earth? I know Comet ...
John's user avatar
  • 263
8 votes
1 answer

Are we less safe now that Arecibo is no more?

update 3: uhoh! Source: Reddit update 2: Sadly, parts of the dish have collapsed, several cables have snapped, and the Arecibo radio telescope is now decommissioned and demolition has been ...
uhoh's user avatar
  • 30.7k
3 votes
2 answers

Accuracy of predicting an asteroid strike in 1987

Good People, I am writing a short story, and I wanted to include a section wherein a family is told that an asteroid is going to strike their home. The thing is, I would like to set the story in 1987,...
outflare's user avatar
19 votes
2 answers

Whats the probability of a hazardous impact for human life on Mars?

Yesterday my sister and I have discussed the recent efforts of SpaceX to create a permanent colony on mars. When coming to the several dangers of creating a habitat on a different planet, we got ...
Starguin's user avatar
  • 291
3 votes
1 answer

is there any mathematical formula, paper or anything that shows the probability of a meteor hitting a particular spot of moon's surface?

According to this article a science professor at Tulane University made a paper to calculate the probability ...
Pablo's user avatar
  • 1,103
2 votes
1 answer

How long time since a typical asteroid collided with another asteroid?

How pristine and ancient are asteroids really? I suppose they melt and reform when they collide with each other. How frequently do they collide with each other?
LocalFluff's user avatar
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2 votes
1 answer

What is the probability of an astronomical body hitting you?

It appears that there is already a calculated ballpark for meteor fatalities, but what about other factors such as space trash, comets, and other miscellaneous items in space? Is it possible to ...
HyperLuminal's user avatar
2 votes
2 answers

Are mass extinction events more likely during meteor showers / passing through comet debris?

Meteor showers happen when Earth passes through the debris left by a comet in its orbit. Meteors are generally tiny, like snow flings or pebbles and don't make it to the ground as meteorites. But ...
LocalFluff's user avatar
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7 votes
1 answer

Where can I find historic rates of meteor impact events?

I have a friend that watches a lot of TV news and they have the impression that impact events are becoming more common than in recent memory. Does the evidence support or refute this? Thinking it ...
akvadrako's user avatar
  • 171
1 vote
3 answers

How near to Earth do comets pass?

Siding Spring now passes about 10 Earth diameters away from Mars. What are the estimates of how often comets fly by Earth at different distances? Are the distances to some famous historical comets ...
LocalFluff's user avatar
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10 votes
1 answer

Detecting Deep Impact

There have been several accounts in media articles of asteroid near misses, many describe that the asteroid was not seen before the near miss. After reading the question and answer to How can we tell ...
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