Questions tagged [impact-probability]

Questions about the chances of collisions between two objects or groups of objects, based on factors such as velocity, mass and number density.

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8
votes
1answer
356 views

Are we less safe now that Arecibo is no more?

update 3: uhoh! Source: Reddit update 2: Sadly, parts of the dish have collapsed, several cables have snapped, and the Arecibo radio telescope is now decommissioned and demolition has been ...
4
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1answer
127 views

Is there any known asteroid or comet whose path goes through the Earth?

Is there any known celestial body of at least 500 ft (150 m) diameter whose Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) is within the Earth, meaning it's sure that it can impact the Earth? I know Comet ...
7
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1answer
64 views

Where can I find historic rates of meteor impact events?

I have a friend that watches a lot of TV news and they have the impression that impact events are becoming more common than in recent memory. Does the evidence support or refute this? Thinking it ...
3
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2answers
101 views

Accuracy of predicting an asteroid strike in 1987

Good People, I am writing a short story, and I wanted to include a section wherein a family is told that an asteroid is going to strike their home. The thing is, I would like to set the story in 1987,...
19
votes
2answers
1k views

Whats the probability of a hazardous impact for human life on Mars?

Yesterday my sister and I have discussed the recent efforts of SpaceX to create a permanent colony on mars. When coming to the several dangers of creating a habitat on a different planet, we got ...
3
votes
1answer
144 views

is there any mathematical formula, paper or anything that shows the probability of a meteor hitting a particular spot of moon's surface?

According to this article http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/02/160209-meteorite-death-india-probability-odds/ a science professor at Tulane University made a paper to calculate the probability ...
2
votes
1answer
133 views

What is the probability of an astronomical body hitting you?

It appears that there is already a calculated ballpark for meteor fatalities, but what about other factors such as space trash, comets, and other miscellaneous items in space? Is it possible to ...
1
vote
2answers
88 views

Are mass extinction events more likely during meteor showers / passing through comet debris?

Meteor showers happen when Earth passes through the debris left by a comet in its orbit. Meteors are generally tiny, like snow flings or pebbles and don't make it to the ground as meteorites. But ...
2
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1answer
79 views

How long time since a typical asteroid collided with another asteroid?

How pristine and ancient are asteroids really? I suppose they melt and reform when they collide with each other. How frequently do they collide with each other?
9
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1answer
256 views

Detecting Deep Impact

There have been several accounts in media articles of asteroid near misses, many describe that the asteroid was not seen before the near miss. After reading the question and answer to How can we tell ...
1
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3answers
842 views

How near to Earth do comets pass?

Siding Spring now passes about 10 Earth diameters away from Mars. What are the estimates of how often comets fly by Earth at different distances? Are the distances to some famous historical comets ...